Supply vs. Demand: Which States Achieved Their COVID-19 Vaccine Points?

we now recently estimated that the U.S. is close to the “COVID -19 vaccine tipping point” – that is, the point at which vaccine supply starts to exceed demand. We also note that national averages may cover significant state differences. We therefore sought to understand where the states in this spectrum fell; such variations are important for understanding what is best to focus efforts to increase vaccine coverage nationwide

To do this, we looked at the proportion of adults who had at least one dose of vaccine by state, daily rate of initial doses given (using a 7-day moving average), and how this rate changed last week (see methods). We are particularly interested in identifying states that may have a small vaccine coverage (i.e., less than 50% of adults 18 or older) with evidence of a reduction in reception of initial doses, due to for these states may present the greatest number of challenges for achievement. adequate vaccine coverage in the US

As of April 29, between 50 states and DC, we found that:

The proportion of adults who received at least one dose of the vaccine was 55% overall, and down nationwide from as low as 41% (Alabama) to as high as 74% (New Hampshire) . In addition, there is evidence of a decline in the rate of new arrests in most states. The daily rate of initial dose administration at the national level is 440 per 100,000, from 136 per 100,000 (Mississippi) to 889 (Rhode Island). Most states (31 of 51) vaccinate below the national rate, indicating the fact that vaccination rates are generally higher than those of larger states (e.g., California). In addition, the rate of initial dose administration per 100,000 in the past week fell for the U.S. as a whole (-17%) and for almost every state (45 of 51) (see Table 1).

At the higher end of the vaccine coverage spectrum, more than 60% of the adult population has received at least one dose in 12 states. These states are first in the Northeast (8 of 12). Seven had a vaccination coverage of no less than 65% and all but 3 (New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania) gave the first dose above the U.S. rate. Eight of the 12 states saw a reduction in the initial dose administration rate last week, suggesting that these states may be approaching or reaching required saturation, even at relatively high levels of vaccination coverage. and administration rates.

At the lower end of the vaccine coverage spectrum, less than 50% of the adult population has received at least one dose in 13 states, including 6 under 45%.. Nine of these states are in the South and in all, the daily rate of initial vaccination per 100,000 is below the national rate. In addition, most experience a reduction in the rate of the first dose given. This suggests that these states may not only have reached or reached their tipping points, they have done so at relatively short levels of vaccine coverage.

The rest of the states, which fall between these two most, are first in the Midwest and, to a lesser extent, the South and West.. In nearly half of these states, between 55% and 60% of adults receive at least one dose. All but one experienced a reduction in the rate of the first dose administered last week.

States that show a combination of shorter overall vaccination coverage with slower and reduced vaccination uptake raise the most concern.. There are about 13 states with at least 50% coverage with at least one dose, all of which vaccinate their adult populations below the national rate. Twelve of these states also saw a decline in the rate at which they vaccinated adults in the past week. This includes 3 states (Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi) with vaccination coverage at or below 42%, the lowest in the nation, each vaccinating at nearly half the rate of the total U.S. These are the states that are likely to have the greatest distance from reaching adequate levels of vaccine coverage and may be at risk for future orphans if levels are not increased.


As in the U.S. as a whole, most states appear to be at or near their COVID-19 vaccination tips-the point where their supply exceeds demand. While this may not be as great a concern for states that have already vaccinated a large portion (> 60%) of their adult population with at least one dose, about one in four states has not yet reached 50%, which is below the coverage level is likely necessary to eliminate the risk of future eruptions. In addition, in these states, the vaccination rate is lower than the national rate. The fact that most of these states have also seen a decrease in the rate of initial dose administration suggests that they may be important targets for focused efforts to generate increased vaccine demand.

Vaccination data were obtained from Johns Hopkins University Centers for Civic Impact, which collects state-level immunization data from both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state dashboard COVID-19, and the Pennsylvania Department of Health (Pennsylvania data does not include the city of Philadelphia). Adult population data (18 years and older) were obtained from State Population in 2019 by Characteristics from the U.S. Census Bureau. We calculated both the 7-day tour average for the first dose administered and the proportion of the adult population that received at least one dose for each state and the U.S. as a whole (excluding territory and dose administered by federal facilities for the overall U.S. calculation). We used these rolling averages to calculate the rate at which states and the United States give the first dose per 100,000 adults. Weekly changes in the rates of the first dose administered were calculated using the percentage change from the current rate (April 29, 2021) to the rate from 7 days prior. Finally, we classified the states by the region used 2010 U.S. Census Bureau Regions and Sections classification.

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