Which States are Affected by the COVID-19 Vaccine Tipping Point?

As of April 19, COVID-19 vaccine eligibility is open to adults in all states, leaving most when the supply of the requested vaccine exceeds that. A recent brief examined when delivery of the COVID-19 vaccine could exceed U.S. national demand, with the U.S. estimated to reach this point within a few weeks. A new short examined the state through state variations in combined vaccine coverage and daily catch to better understand how the population segment may vary across the country.

By looking at the proportion of adults who had at least one dose of the vaccine in the state, daily rate of the first dose given (using the 7-day moving average), and how it was administered. -or at this rate last week, seen in the short to April 29:

  • 55% of adults received at least one dose of the vaccine, with a low 41% in Alabama and a high 74% in New Hampshire. A decline in the rate of acceptance has been seen in most states.
  • Twelve states account for 60% or more of adults who have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, with 8 of its states in the Northeast. Thirteen states reached less than 50% of adults, (including 6 under 45%), with 9 of the states in the South.
  • Most states have seen rate reductions in the first dose, even when rates vary, meaning the country as a whole has reached a tipping point with supply exceeding demand.
  • States with both low vaccination coverage and slow daily vaccination uptake have specific concerns. For example, in 3 states (Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi), vaccination coverage is at or below 42%, the lowest in the nation, and each vaccinates at nearly half the daily rate in the U.S. in general. These states may have the greatest distance from achieving adequate levels of vaccine coverage to the lowest risk of future outbreaks.

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